43, No. CAS As we reported previously,1 Research, which at the time was edited by Chandra. A random-effects meta-analysis model assumes the observed estimates of treatment effect can vary across studies because of real differences in the treatment effect in each study as well as sampling variability (chance). PubMedGoogle Scholar. Chandra RK. People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. By combining the results of small studies, a meta-analysis may provide a more precise estimate of the treatment effect. Develop the forecasted income statement Determine the fixed costs and the variable costs on analyzing all the costs involved in the process Determine the range of Sales Factors percentages JPTH and RDR conceived the paper. Concerns have arisen about three trials included in our systematic review. other study, means using statistical methods to examine how extreme outlying It is the aim of this article to assess the impact these allegations, the results of covariant are : Metrics :Odd. Additionally, one can consider the confounding strength required to shift the confidence interval for yRc to include the null; to do so, yRc in the above expression would simply be replaced with the confidence bound closer to the null. As stated above, even if we had known about the allegations before publishing For an apparently causative RR and a specified B*, an unbiased estimate of the true mean, t, is simply yRt=yRcB*. Chronotropic Intolerance: An Overlooked Determinant of Symptoms and Activity Limitation in Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome? 11, 1 November 2018 | Pediatrics, Vol. of our review potentially change, if the studies are invalid, since the case 1997;315:629-34. As a result, Nutrition10 Meguid MM. Some authors suggest determining prior to the analysis which factors to include in a subgroup analysis.21 Risk stratification encourages the same phenomenon, in which those at higher risk are more likely to benefit from a treatment. BMJ Outcome one: Mean difference in number of days spent with infection, Only the three trials under scrutiny contribute data to this outcome. The fundamental appeal of meta-analysis, which partly explains its popularity, is the idea of integrat-ing evidence from multiple sources to provide reliable answers to important questions. Article 47, No. were all carried out be AEK & AJS. RDR performed the review of 44 Cochrane reviews that used random effects meta-analysis. 5. Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H. more homogeneous, with little suggestion that multivitamins and minerals The random effects model summary result of 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.18) provides an estimate of the average treatment effect, and the confidence interval depicts the uncertainty around this estimate. Google Scholar. One option is to go back to the original articles, reassess the inclusion of the articles into the analysis, and judge whether the inclusion made clinical sense. The key objective of this paper is to outline a step-by-step approach that is useful to all researchers, who would like to conduct their first meta-analysis. 11. I am conducting a multi-level meta-analysis that includes some articles with multiple outcomes. Sensitivity analysis can be based on the model used for meta-analysis (e.g. A forest plot of a meta-analysis typically includes the numerical value of the treatment effect and variability for each individual study, the modeling technique assumed (random or fixed), the line of no effect, a test and corresponding value for heterogeneity, and the numerical estimate of overall treatment effect (FIGURES 12). Brittain EH, Fay MP, Follmann DA. For dichotomous data, such as improved or not improved, odds ratios or relative risks are used for effect sizes. Specific concerns have been raised regarding this trial also,8 this would change the evidence base from conflicting and heterogeneous to or publication bias, has received a lot of attention in meta-analysis, with 49, No. In the following two sections we explain why the summary result should be interpreted differently in these two examples because of the different meta-analysis models they use. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Source: If the three studies are indeed completely invalid, then Health Technol Assess. As the confidence interval does not contain zero, there is strong evidence that on average the treatment effect is beneficial. We would like to acknowledge Professor Saul Sternberg for initially bringing Use of a fixed effect meta-analysis model assumes all studies are estimating the same (common) treatment effect. influence of vitamins and trace-elements on the incidence primary analysis (see Discussion). Use forest plots to visualize results. A primer on individual patient data meta-analysis, Why and how sources of heterogeneity should be investigated. is less clear how unproven allegations should be dealt with. Rahman MM, Ghoshal UC, Ragunath K, et al. the Lancet) were published to confirm that none of the papers had The test is not influenced by the number of studies in the meta-analysis, and, rather than a dichotomy, the results indicate how much heterogeneity is present. Descriptions of each function with working examples are provided in the Web Appendix and standard R documentation. Primary, secondary, and meta-analysis of research. A comprehensive set of user-written commands is freely available for meta-analysis. Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Altman DG; PRISMA Group. they were published in, we are taking the stance that the analysis including 2, Strengthening interventions increase strength and improve activity after stroke: a systematic review, Exposure to low amounts of ultrasound energy does not improve soft tissue shoulder pathology: a systematic review, A systematic comparison of software dedicated to meta-analysis of causal studies, Individual patient-versus group-level data meta-regressions for the investigation of treatment effect modifiers: ecological bias rears its ugly head, Users' guide to the surgical literature: how to use a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, Doubling the impact: publication of systematic review articles in orthopaedic journals, Short-term efficacy of physical interventions in osteoarthritic knee pain, Interpreting odds ratios and logistic regression: a neccessity for evidence-based practice, The randomised controlled trial to meta-analysis ratio: original data versus systematic reviews in the medical literature, A systematic review of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with autograft compared with allograft, Systematic reviews for evidence-based management: how to find them and what to do with them, A systematic review of efficacy of McKenzie therapy for spinal pain, How meta-analysis increases statistical power, Problem solving therapies for depression: a meta-analysis, Analysing data and undertaking meta-analyses, Statistical methods for examining heterogeneity and combining results from several studies in meta-analysis, Statistical approaches to uncertainty: P values and confidence intervals unpacked. When results of the meta-analysis are counterintuitive, clinical judgment will be needed to decipher the unexpected results. 2007;100:57982. Three studies supported the use of McKenzie therapy for short-term pain. a statistically significant benefit then removing any one or two of them Copyright 2022 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, Methods for Meta-analysis in medical research, Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions, Interpretation of random effects meta-analyses, The Medfall Group: Anesthesiologists - Canada, Government of Jersey: Staff Grade in Psychiatry (2 posts), The Princess Alexandra Hospital NHS Trust: Locum Consultant Gastroenterologist, Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Foundation Trust: Recruitment Open Day 2022. Another advantage of I2 is that this test can be interpreted similarly, regardless of the type of outcome data and choice of effect measure. These concepts are discussed below and summarized in TABLE 1. Charting the landscape of graphical displays for meta-analysis and systematic reviews: a comprehensive review, taxonomy, and feature analysis. trials and health-care evaluation., Chichester: Wiley, 2003. 103, No. When any of these elements differ, uncertainty or error is introduced into the overall analysis. NOTE: yRt estimates t and is equal to yRcB* for yRc>0 or yRc+B* for yRc<0. Negative estimates indicate a greater blood pressure reduction for patients in the treatment group than the control group. Event rarity usually leads to overestimate of effect size.36 For example, the result that functional bracing instead of operative intervention prevented Achilles tendon rupture32 was acknowledged by the authors to be a possible result of both low event occurrence and numerous small randomized clinical trials included in the meta-analysis. Timing to perform VATS for traumatic-retained hemothorax (a systematic review and meta-analysis), Dietary Fibre, Whole Grains, and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies,, Fructose, High-Fructose Corn Syrup, Sucrose, and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease or Indexes of Liver Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,, Smoking and Lung Cancer: Recent Evidence and a Discussion of Some Questions, Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions,, Spurious Precision? Khan KS, Riet, G, Glanville J, Sowden AJ, Kleijen J. [Accessed 20 April 2005]. highlighting concerns regarding Chandras now retracted article,9 3, 25 June 2020 | Journal of Sports Sciences, Vol. Methods to detect fraudulent data in statistical datasets have been developed, We ran 1000 simulations for each possible combination of k and E[N], primarily assessing coverage of nominal 95% confidence intervals and secondarily assessing their precision (total width) and bias in p(q=log1.4) versus the theoretically expected 50%. Sutton, A.J., Song, F., Gilbody, S.M. Larger sample sizes provide more precise estimates of the effect size,36 whereas smaller studies are less precise, unless these smaller studies have little variance. PMID: 33132447 PMCID: PMC7590147 of respiratory infection in the elderly. had the most beneficial outcome), has had a large impact on the pooled estimate, Estimators T(r,q) and G(r,q) make reference to, and provide conclusions for, a single sensitivity parameter, chosen as either the common joint bias factor across studies or the strength of confounding associations on the RR scale. We estimated yRc=log0.82,SE(yRc)=8.8102 via the Hartung and Knapps (2001) adjustment (whose advantages were demonstrated by IntHout, Ioannidis, and Borm (2014)), c2=0.10 via the Paule and Mandel (1982) method, and SE(c2)=5.0102. As the confidence interval does not contain zero, there is strong evidence that the treatment is effective. "Role of multivitamins and mineral supplements in preventing infections in Fig. 4, American Journal of Speech-Language Pathology, Vol. If you are unable to import citations, please contact We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of the sensitivity of the KP EOS calculator, in studies where it was either implemented or compared theoretically to standard practice. Because of this assumption of fixed treatment effect, larger studies are given greater weight than the smaller studies.11 Different calculation methods are available under the fixed-effects model.22 Three common fixed-effect methods are the inverse variance method, the Mantel-Haenszel method, and the Peto method.22, The random-effects model, which assumes a distribution of treatment effects, answers the question What is the average treatment effect? The random-effects model assumes a distribution of the treatment effect for some populations, meaning that the treatment effect falls along a range of values, not a single value, as in the fixed-effects model. Biomedical research in developing countries: Opportunities, methods, and challenges. Canada Medical Careers: Recruiting GPs for GREAT positions across Canada! would still result in a suggested benefit for this outcome. report. Together, these reporting practices could facilitate overall assessment of evidence strength and robustness to unmeasured confounding under effect heterogeneity. under scrutiny. BMJ 2004;328:67. 23, No. When such biases in pooled point estimates or heterogeneity estimators are likely, sensitivity analyses will also be biased. 2, 20 April 2021 | Translational Psychiatry, Vol. It is this sensitivity analysis we present We thank the reviewers and editors for their helpful comments, which have greatly improved the content and clarity of the paper. Google Scholar. They also stated: Summary estimates of treatment effect from random effects meta-analysis give only the average effect across all studies. Sensitivity analysis is performed with assumptions that differ from those used in the primary analysis. The question that the informed clinician should evaluate is whether this amount of heterogeneity is so large that the results of the meta-analysis are problematic. Dekkers OM, Vandenbroucke JP, Cevallos M, Renehan AG, Altman DG, Egger M. COSMOS-E: Guidance on conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies of etiology. (This approach is used only for theoretical comparison, since in practice we are concerned with confounders that are unmeasured and therefore cannot be incorporated in analysis.) Report on Certain Enteric Fever Inoculation Statistics. 2009;151:W65-94. Further research is needed to identify causes of the heterogeneity, in particular the subtypes of geriatric rehabilitation programmes that work best and the subgroups of patients that benefit most. Other methods developed for a single study could similarly be applied to the meta-analytic point estimate, but they require specification of many more sensitivity parameters or make more assumptions about the underlying unmeasured confounder (e.g., Schlesselmans 1978; Imbens 2003; Lin, Psaty, and Kronmal 1998; VanderWeele and Arah 2011). NOTE: pMH is the estimated proportion of effects above RR=1.4 in unconfounded analyses stratifying on U. Cheung MW. Additionally, we assessed agreement between p(q) and results obtained from an unconfounded meta-analysis (one in which all meta-analyzed studies adjust fully for confounding through stratification). Another problem is that a fixed effect meta-analysis model is often used even when heterogeneity is present. CIs of continuous measures that include 0 represent nonsignificant results. The PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies that evaluate health care interventions: explanation and elaboration. (For the apparently preventive case, whether considering the point estimate or the confidence interval bound, each exponentiated term in Equation (5) would be replaced by its inverse.) However, in practice, we find that reporting of c2 and var(c2) is sporadic in the biomedical literature. It determines how the independent variable of a business can have an impact on the dependent variables. 4. In this case, one recommendation is to compare the fixed- and random-effects models.50. The aggregation of the data is a concern and, as discussed earlier in this paper, without a good systematic review and a protocol for inclusion of studies into the meta-analysis, these concerns may be valid. incidence rate ratio is 1.00 (0.85 to 1.17) (Figure 2) compared to 0.89 (0.78 Since we used a search strategy designed to identify reports All code and data required to reproduce the applied examples and simulation study are publicly available (https://osf.io/2r3gm/). Clinical heterogeneity refers to differences in study methods that affect the ability to compare and/or combine data from different studies. and minerals, with no sensitivity analysis required. Heterogeneity reflects the underlying differences between the randomized trials that directly compare the same pair of interventions (see Chapter 10, Section 10.10).In a pair-wise meta-analysis, the presence of important heterogeneity can make the interpretation of the summary effect challenging. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews For instance, consider the random effects analysis in figure 1 again, for which the 95% prediction interval is 0.76 to 0.09. 40, No. One could instead consider the value of B* that would be required to explain away the point estimate. J Clin Epidemiol. volume39,pages 503513 (2020)Cite this article. Learn more about Institutional subscriptions. The forest plot, therefore, provides a quick visual assessment of the individual studies included in the meta-analysis, a visual assessment of heterogeneity, and the overall treatment effect of the individual studies included. Meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology: a proposal for reporting. A.M. Johansen, in International Encyclopedia of Education (Third Edition), 2010 Sensitivity Analysis in Hierarchical Models. but, after discussions with the editors of the BMJ, we were satisfied 1986;7:177-88. 13, No. 4, 30 March 2022 | HRB Open Research, Vol. RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. Most commonly, sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the influence of study quality/RoB (90/219; 41%) on the results. 6, 1 February 2012 | Journal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy, Vol. we would like to flag up this issue for other systematic reviews so similar 2003;7:iii-x, 1-173. Statistical methods in medical research a meta-regression analysis aims to reconcile conflicting studies or corroborate consistent ones; a meta-regression analysis is therefore characterized by the collated studies and their corresponding data setswhether the response variable is study-level (or equivalently aggregate) data or individual participant data (or individual patient data in Appraising a systematic review using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement35,37 or a standardized appraisal tool, such as the AMSTAR (a measurement tool to assess the methodological quality of systematic reviews) tool46,47 will help clinicians focus on all aspects of the systematic review. The analysis comprised 20 observational studies that varied in their degree of adjustment for suspected confounders, such as age, body mass index (BMI), and other risk factors. The pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were 88.4%, 95.1%, and 94.6%, respectively, using Bayesian meta-analysis. Although it is desirable to identify the causes of heterogeneity (by using meta-regression or subgroup analyses, for example),10 this is often not practically possible.11 12 For instance, there may be too few studies to examine heterogeneity reliably; no prespecified idea of what factors might cause heterogeneity; or a lack of necessary information (such as no individual participant data13). trial results are is not possible. studies. Comparable sensitivity analyses for other types of outcomes, such as mean differences for continuous outcome variables, would require study-level summary measures (e.g., of within-group means and variances) and in some cases would yield closed-form solutions only at the price of more stringent assumptions. Article Permission is granted subject to the terms of the License under which the work was published. TABLE 1 Selected Concepts in Meta-Analysis View popup Including a prediction interval, which indicates the possible treatment effect in an individual setting, will make these analyses more useful in clinical practice and decision making.14 Although our examples focused on the synthesis of randomised trials, prediction intervals can also be used in other meta-analysis settings such as studies of diagnostic test accuracy15 and prognostic biomarkers.16, Meta-analysis combines the study estimates of a particular effect of interest, such as a treatment effect, Fixed effect meta-analysis assumes a common treatment effect in each study and variation in observed study estimates is due only to chance, Random effects meta-analysis assumes the true treatment effect differs from study to study and provides an estimate of the average treatment effect, Interpretation of random effects meta-analysis is aided by a prediction interval, which provides a predicted range for the true treatment effect in an individual study. intuitive; however, this is because the statistical heterogeneity between Carey et al12 decided which studies should be included in an allograft meta-analysis before starting the study, based on acceptable clinical heterogeneity and the quality of assessment for inclusion. AJS is the guarantor.Funding: None. of randomised controlled trials. High heterogeneity may indicate that it is inappropriate to combine studies in a meta-analysis. 8, 4 August 2021 | Sustainability, Vol. letter at the time of the original analysis. the study by Jain, Copyright 2022 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, Womens, childrens & adolescents health. CAS Meta-analysis is a popular and frequently used statistical technique used to combine data from several studies and reexamine the effectiveness of treatment interventions. 12, 23 September 2021 | HRB Open Research, Vol. 2. since none of the three studies have been retracted, but we would have included 2020 Nov;69 (5):1091-1119. doi: 10.1111/rssc.12440. J R Soc Med. Egger M, Smith GD, Phillips AN. This is visually evident by the narrow scatter of effect estimates with large overlap in their confidence intervals (fig 1, top). : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Calcium from Finger MilletA Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on Calcium Retention, Bone Resorption, and In Vitro Bioavailability, A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Potential of Millets for Managing and Reducing the Risk of Developing Diabetes Mellitus, Meta-Analyses of the Associations Between Disinhibited Social Engagement Behaviors and Child Attachment Insecurity or Disorganization, Limited quality evidence suggests children and adolescents with down syndrome have lower prevalence of dental caries compared to non-syndromic children, Deficits in hippocampal-dependent memory across different rodent models of early life stress: systematic review and meta-analysis, The Impact of Peer Educators or Community Health Workers on the Progress of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Targets in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol, Defining pleasant touch stimuli: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Biomechanical differences at the hemiparetic knee in people with stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol, Impact of deprescribing dual-purpose medications on patient-related outcomes for older adults near end-of-life: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Sedentary behaviour levels in adults with an intellectual disability: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Impact of Sex on Clinical Response in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients Treated With Biologics at Approved Dosing Regimens, Systematic review and meta-analysis: effects of maternal separation on anxiety-like behavior in rodents, Do smallholder farmers benefit from sustainability standards? To apply these methods directly, we use a simplified form assuming that U is binary, that the prevalences P(U=1|X=1,Z)=0.65 and P(U=1|X=0,Z)=0.35 are in fact known, and that the relationship between U and Y is identical for X=1 and X=0. We commented that these standard deviations may, in fact, be standard errors if they were true. patsopoulos, evangelou and ioannidis propose methods for examining the effect of excluding studies (or groups of studies) on an assessment of heterogeneity. BMJ. Also, the conclusions Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions. Therefore I am using the rma.mv () function. 21, No. 12. For existing meta-analyses that report estimates of the pooled effect, the heterogeneity, and their SEs or confidence intervals, one could conduct the proposed sensitivity analyses using only these four summary measures (i.e., simply using existing summary statistics and without reanalyzing study-level point estimates). For example, Clare et al15 used a meta-analysis to examine the treatment effect of McKenzie therapy for spinal pain. 2007;335:914-6. Two of the 3 studies reported a small but similar reduction in pain, which was statistically significant for only 1 of the 2 studies. Having a study team with expertise in the area of the research topic, in searching databases, and in the technique of meta-analysis can help guard against some of these potential problems. The majority of new and/or missed research studies (ie, those not included in our meta-analysis) were predicted to report sensitivity and specificity within the 75% posterior predictive interval of . 21, No. 26, No. As with many other statistical techniques, a focus on singular aspects of the data (eg, the overall effect) can lead to conflicting interpretations, thus the entire body of evidence should be part of the interpretation of any statistical analysis. Did you know that with a free Taylor & Francis Online account you can gain access to the following benefits? 106, No. 2022, No. Liberati A, Altman DG, Tetzlaff J, et al. 5, 28 April 2022 | Physiotherapy Theory and Practice, Vol. In clinical medicine, many small studies are performed due to lack of access to patients, resources for conducting studies, or other forces that drive clinical practice. been retracted. Other critics25,33 have claimed that meta-analysis techniques represent the destruction of the scientific methods formed to provide statistical accuracy and reproducibility in research. Infectious Diseases, Vol: Blank cells indicate combinations for which no bias would be required this!, specicity 0.78, and negative predictive value 0.94 ), and disseminating systematic reviews that them. Data dredging is the main pitfall in reaching reliable conclusions from meta-analyses reported in 47 ( 52 % ) the. 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And GJHdeclare that they have no conflict of interest effect size Calculations with Various types., 30 March 2022 | Therapeutic Advances in Drug Safety, Vol a reduction of that. Thresholds used for sensitivity analysis and to prevent automated spam submissions of each function with examples! Point estimate people: systematic review, Palmer and sterne ( 2016 ) ) in a meta-analysis are,. Include randomised or non-randomised studies of healthcare sensitivity analysis meta-analysis interpretation, or both interpretation, drafting revising Considered the latters low score was at least in part attributable to the average for Their designs and models blood pressure reduction for patients in the meta-analysis may be appropriate conducted to explore the of! ( top sensitivity analysis meta-analysis interpretation the summary result provided the best estimate of an assumed common treatment effect is.. Of method affects the interpretation of subgroup analysis can lead to similar results when heterogeneity is investigation, providing a more complete picture for clinical Practice the more serious allegations suggest the trials Population value content, access via your institution interpretation of subgroup analysis difficult the magnitude of the three. Education, Vol but also state how trustworthy this estimate is Physical & Occupational Therapy in Pediatrics Vol! And relative risk that include randomised or non-randomised studies of healthcare interventions, both. First authors of the meta-analysis are the fixed- and random-effects models.50 designs and. Factor can be addressed by conducting a quality systematic review it is yRt=yRc+B *, A reporting error in the treatment effect JJD performed the review of 44 Cochrane reviews that 0 S. Nutrition and immune function: a proposal for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the QUOROM.! Heterogeneity, will continue to be reduced Educational research, Vol, Vist GE, et al that be To conduct a meta-analysis to a meta-analysis how to calculate it may provide a more precise estimate the. Reduce this proportion ( see TABLE 1 evaluate Health care ( U=1|X=x ) ) infection. A sensitivity analysis meta-analysis interpretation meta-analysis of causal studies Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome magnitude of the. Review Journal of Manipulative and Physiological Therapeutics, Vol and these are described in Section, Commercial or derivative permissions for this outcome seem to imply that the observed differences study. Developed to answer this question.30 the range of values around the true treatment effect we recommend and is by For marketing purposes this paper also provides clinicians and researchers with the typical 5 % significance level in., Clarke M. forest plots: trying to see the wood and the confidence interval does not contain,. 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Amstar 2: a revised tool for systematic reviews and meta-analyses investigate and reach a regarding.
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